They do- they abound

Ninja.

Finally got to log in and missed a 5.50 45seat by a second or so. It was at 44 when I opened the lobby… Oh well.

5.5 SNG 9seat

BB AQoff
UTG limps
Highjack limps
SB folds
I make it 4x.
UTG calls other guy folds

Flop comes 422.
I fire a pot sized continuation bet
He calls
Turn is a J
I check
He checks
River is a 3
I check
He makes a small bet
I call
He turns over 53off.

Jesus what a horrible game.

After that hit I proceed to fold for 20 minutes or so. The donkey who hurt me goes all in about every other hand until he is busted.

I get a free flop in the BB with T2off. Flop comes 89J.
SB checks, I push all in with my open ended
He snap calls with TQ.

Oops.

5.5 SNG 9 seat

It is going to be one of those days.

First hand of the next game I am in the BB (again?) with AJoff.
UTG makes it 3.5x
Button calls
SB calls
I call
Flop comes 344
It checks around
Turn is a K
It checks around
River is some other thing
SB checks, I check, original raiser checks, button bets
SB reraises
I fold
Original raiser folds
Button rereraises all in
SB calls and turns over 94off for a set of fours and a knock out.

He called a raised multi-way pot with 94off.

And I am out because I pushed with TT and AKs hit his ace.

It *IS* one of those days.

5.5 SNG 9 seat

Lost chips first hand when I raised with KQ- was reraised the min- called- missed the flop- gave it up.

Raised with AJoff- scoop.

AQs in the BB- three limpers
Pot raise
Two callers
Flop came two of my suit
Pot raise- scoop

KJs in the SB
3x raise from late
I call
Flop has two of my suit and the ace
I check raise all in
He calls
I hit my flush to beat his pair

55 in mid
Small raise in front
I call along with several others
I flop the set
I check
Guy makes a small bet
I call
Turn is a blank
He checks
I min bet
He calls
River gives me quads
He checks
I bet
He folds

Still nice.

Anyway, quick break for some poker math. Lets recall my TT vs. AKs hand a minute ago.

I am trying to think more consciously about EV. Here is how you calculate it in the case of a CALLED shove. Before the call your EV will always be higher because your opponent could fold.

AMOUNT YOU WIN IF CALLED AND YOU WIN
Multiplied by
YOUR PERCENT TO WIN
Minus
HOW MUCH YOU LOSE IF CALLED AND YOU LOSE

So, in that case we had 120, 120, and 30 in dead money. He raised and I shoved for 1380. He calls 1380. Total pot is 3030.

In a match of TT vs AKs with no suit blockage- we have 53% for the TT.

So, (3030*.53)-1380=+226

So, if I make that move and get called over and over I will make 226 profit on average.

Meanwhile, I flopped a gut shot and an overpair and made a continuation bet that got called. I turned top pair and pushed the caller all in. He turned over the straight that my top pair gave him. Oops.

Then, I busted a guy who I put all in and who called me with A high. I had TPTK.

Pot raise from UTG+1 with AKs. Scoop.

JJ in UTG
Pot raise again
One caller
Two callers
Flop comes
A high. I continuation bet.
One fold, one shove.
The shove is for another 20% of the pot maybe so I have to call.
He has the A

Let’s run our EV calc on that call.

720 970 540 in the pot… 2230. 430 to call (not bad 20% estimate).

So I win- wait, does my call count as part of the winning? Shit. I need to redo the other one I think…

Oh! The other one isn’t a call.

Let’s assume my calling money does not count as a win.

Post flop I am 9% to win.

(2230*.09)-430= -230.

Knowing he had the A it was a bad call. I didn’t KNOW but even if we add in a fudge factor it was a bad call.

Fucking jacks.

Well shit- now I am wondering about the TT hand again. Even though I was the shover… does my shove count as winnings? I think it does because the call comes AFTER it goes into the pot. I am risking it PRECALL and then it isn’t mine.

Okay, I am still unclear so I am going to run it without my shove. Although there will be some fudge since I didn’t get the details.

And I am crippled in my game. It’s been a clusterfuck. Even those nice chip ups were gay.

I made a decent raise preflop from the SB with AJ. BB calls- dickhole who cracked my jacks.

Oh wait- sidebar- a few hands later he did the same thing I did with his jacks. Bet them, got called by a shitty ace. Ace high flop-continuation bet- ace goes all in- and he calls. Unlike me- he four flushed to win.

Anyway, guy calls my AJ bet. Flop is K high rag. I continuation bet- firmly. He calls.

Turn is a T. I check. He checks.

River is an 8.

I bet- he calls.

Turns over T9o.

He called the preflop raise and the continuation bet with nothing.

We are on the bubble and the stacks are:
5410- donkey suckhole
3600
3300
750- me

Anyway, back to our TT hand.

I believe the pot, before I shoved, was probably about 800 less.

So (2230*.53)-1380=is-198

That cannot be right. A) I am the favorite to win and B) the pot has dead money.

Okay, I got it. You can’t have it both ways- in a good way. I was subtracting my whole stack- not including what was out there preshove.

Should be (2230*.53)-880=+301

I double up stealing then double up when my ATo shove gets called by A6s and holds.

Then I bust somebody.

In the money and healthy.

Hell yeah.

I bet 99 and get called by DSH. Flop comes 8JK and I give it up.

Made it to heads up but lost. He had a pretty big stack relative to mine but honestly the problem was I didn’t know how to deal with him. He played like The Big Loud Dumb One. Let’s model a player and discuss.

Calls almost any bet preflop regardless of position.
Bets at any pot without position- calls any shy of all-in (almost)- without position.

I tried to talk to TBLDO about this, but every word out of his mouth was nonsense. He used sentences like, “well, if I am holding an 8, or if there is an 8 on the board… I will always bet.” I… I don’t even know where to go with that.

5.5 SNG 45seat

First hand I played went well. Somebody was busted down to 450. I still had my full 1500 and was dealt JJ. One caller. I shove. Caller calls my shove.

We turn over K2s, JJ, and 44. I took it down for a nice double-up+

I am going to explain fold equity as it applies to hand equity. Not because I think you need to know, but because I want to harness the math and assimilate it. As it stands I understand it academically and intuitively, but the math part isn’t built into my game. It’s a case where I need to think through it long hand which isn’t practical so I fake it. I don’t want to fake it.

Hand equity we used a minute ago talking about percent to win in various hands. Obviously you do a lot of guesswork here since you don’t know what your opponent is holding. Although, there are some RADICAL (and I mean awesome not avant gaurde) ways to think about this too…. Sorry, ahem… Uh- equity… Here we are just talking about chance to win the hand vs. hand showdown.

So, we will use AKs vs. JJ where the jack shares a suit since I just used this hand in an example to TBLDO.

AKs – 46%
JJ – 54%

Note: 2 of 32 after last hand.

AKs is debating a shove, but figures the JJ for a strong pair so he knows his actual hand (roughly).

Now, if he shoves JJ should put him on a big hand. Overpair, big suited connector… something. So, he will figure himself for a coin flip at best. Nobody likes to gamble their tournament on a coin flip so AKs assigns JJ a probability of folding at 50%

The way we modify our hand equity is by multiplying the fold percent by HIS win percent.

So, .50*.54= .26

This means that by shoving AKs will take this pot 74% of the time.

Now those numbers are really easy to deal with so let’s spice it up and try it again.

AJoff vs. KQs with the ace sharing a suit. AFTER a flop with undercards and 2 flush cards.

Side note: For all of my bitching about Gus’ book and his playstyle… I’ve definitely adopted the “shove for max pressure” when I think I’ve got the cards- but want to shut the pot down and have the stack.

AJoff – 52%
KQs – 48%

Wow, that is close.

KQ puts out a bet that “tells” AJ that he is on the flush draw.

Side note: There may be no greater feeling in poker than busted the guy who limped with AA. Saw a free flop with K5off. Flopped a set. Put me in 2 of 22.

Side note: Shipped those chips to somebody else when his pocket pair beat my second pair.

So, knowing this guy is on the draw- but knowing he isn’t on the nut draw- we figure he is eager for a chance to nail the flush and take a big pot- but at least a little nervous about a better flush. We know he isn’t too nervous- but still.

Conservatively we assign a 20% fold value.

WAIT!!!!

Sorry, The Cute Helpful One dropped off dinner for me and I was busted while she was here. With a decent stack (everyone is shortstacked but like the top two guys) in mid field I call a shove with 99. The guy has me stacked by like 100 chips. He turns over 8Ts and rivered his flush to bust me.

I left this up thinking I would come back to it, but alas I never made it. Truth made me play video games and then I made him watch WSOP 23 and 24. Or 24 and 25? While watching something embarrassing happened. I am totally mortified. When Darvin called Kopp’s all-in I let on a full fledged guy-watching-sports cheer. OMG, I am one of Them.

Anyway, so I tried to go to bed “early” at about 1:45… I typically read for a while, but I still figure I was asleep 2 or 4 hours before normal. It wasn’t light out. But then I woke up at 8 and couldn’t turn my brain off. We will see how today goes.

MEANWHILE, I hit up a 5.5 SNG 9 and am at almost quadruple the starting stack with only two people out! I busted a guy with AA early on- he was a knucklehead calling raises and then pushing all in with 22. Then, I busted the other bigstack with QQ when he pushed all-in with… two over cards. So, yay me!

Okay, so, fold value… I am going to wrap this up weakly because my brain isn’t “in it” anymore.

Actually, my brain might not have been in it last night since I was trying to create a situation where my “seed” was the other guy’s cards not the player’s cards. I think I am going to leave you hanging for now. I will revisit this for sure though because it is heavily on my mind as my next “big step” in my development.

JJ got cracked by AA. I am second in chips now.

Somebody goes out and we are on the bubble with one super short stack.

Small stack doubled, stole the blinds, then reraised my steal (I raised 3x on the button with A8 and he shoved for half my stack) and is now healthy.

I all a 3x with KQ and hit top pair and take a decent pot from the chip leader- I am in first again. He gets a couple good steals in and takes it back.

And I become the short stack. My QQ gets a walk, I raise the small stack with AKoff, he shoves, I call, he as QQ and they hold.

Bubble burst and on the first hand post bubble I double up thought the big stack with KK to level the field.

Blinds are huge though so it will be very volatile.

My A6s sucks out on A7off and we are two and I have the chips.

I get busted BY ANOTHER SUCKOUT FUCK and take second. All in preflop A9s vs. QTs and he rivers- on the river- the straight to beat my flopped top pair.