bleeding out...

Ninja.

I am feeling very lost.

A few weeks ago I had something of an epiphany… or a coming to Jesus moment after reading some of Wannabe’s blog. For this to make sense we must go back several months.

I was on my little poker learning journey and had developed a solid grasp of the mechanics, the math, the flow… whatever. I had become a solid player. Over the course of several weeks I experienced a bunch of bad beats that and a few discipline cracks. I had about 6 tournaments in a row where I either got just flat out fucked by the math or I fucked myself because of the doubt/confusion/frustration that it caused. Then, to cap it off I had a couple more bad beats. Meanwhile I watched a lot of very loose aggressive players get rewarded. And not nameless “it always seems like there is one player who…” sort of stuff- I watched the same assholes get rewarded again and again.

This lead to a bit of a crisis of confidence in my strategic choices and I started opening up my game- playing more hands… chasing draws… whatever. It *felt* like maybe it was working as my results seemed to improve. But the reality was I went from a solid player getting very unlucky very early on to a shitty player getting what was due to him a little later on. I floundered, changed my game more, and soon was lost.

When I found Wannabe’s blog it acted as something of an anchor for me. It reminded me to believe in what I knew. He put words to many of the things I’d been feeling and described, with creepy accuracy, some of the experiences I was having. The coolest thing about this was that I was reading something he had written years before.

And so I settled down, returned to the path of “right thinking” and focused on making the right plays. Quality starting hands, position play, selective aggression, game theory, etc… And I my record changed accordingly. For weeks I was cashing in 50-70% of my 9 seat SNGs. I had good cards, bad cards, suffered the occasional bad beat, and the occasional discipline break… But overall very solid and predictable results.

Then the 17 of 20 day. I played great poker. I recorded the whole thing. But it was a non stop bullshit suckout festival. And now, almost 4 weeks later, I haven’t had a day with results I am proud of. Included in this is list was my live poker trip to hell- I mean Blackhawk.

I recognize that even the best players will not win every time. You can’t really win on the day you get shitty cards or your cards don’t hit the board. I mean, sure, sometimes you can pull something out- but generally if you draw the short straw and don’t get the tools you are not going to win. Also, you will sometimes just run into the unlikely holding or the improbably suckout. So, you factor that into your expectations. I would like to tell you that I think those circumstances should add up to maybe 25% of your total play. 25% of your games (assuming single table SNG) you are just going to get fucked and lose- period. That is- after you are out you look back and say, “there was no reasonable way that could be avoided- I made good choices based on the cards I had.” Then, you fight for the remaining 75%.

My problem is that it seems to be more like 50% or greater of my SNGs are of the “how could you possibly avoid that?” circumstances. Guy limped with AA. Board is K22J. I am holding KJ. Guy limped with AA. Board is AJ5. I am holding AJ. I push all in and get called by KT who hits his Q on the turn. I hold QQ against a board of 983 and push all in. I get called by 55 who sets up on the turn. IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, but how often and for how long? I just did some quick tabulation and I am looking at roughly 50% over the course of 96 tourneys. 80%+ are STT SNGs. The rest are a smattering of multi table SNGs, full tourneys, and live games.

Contrary to any reasonable bankroll management system I am playing a 20+2 SNG 9. 20% of my bank. I’ve been wanting to try it for a while to see if the flavor of the competition is different. Also, foolishly I am sure, I still “believe” my luck will change.

I will record all my hands here- probably redundant since I’ve got Tracker…

SB 82off,
3x from hijack
Fold

Button 99
No action before me 3x
Reraise to 300 from SB
I call based on hand strength and position
Flop is Q88
He bets the pot
I fold

Hijack K4off- fold

Cutoff A7suited
No action in front
3x
Scoop

Not the start I wanted.

UTG+2 K8off- fold

UTG+1 K5s- fold

UTG J2off- fold

BB Q3off- fold to 3x from UTG

SB T6off- fold

Button 26off- fold to min raise from UTG

Fuck that first hand hurt me mentally.

Hijack 5Joff- fold with no action

Cutoff K9off- fold with no action

I would not have called that reraise with 88. 99 was pretty questionable. There was no way I could make the post flop call for half my stack.

Mid A5off- fold with a limper in front

UTG+2 K8s- fold with no action

UTG+1 69s- fold

UTG A7s- fold

Blinds are 25/50 I am at 1,120 chips

BB A7s- walked

SB A2off
No action, 3x raise
Call from the BB
734 flop
I check
He checks
Turn is a K
I bet half the pot
He calls
River is a J
I check
He checks
He turns over QJs

Button 23s- fold

Hijack AToff- fold to 3x (he mucked face up with AA after scooping)

Cutoff 86off- fold

Call to the river and hit a jack guy (also reraise my 99 guy) has me down to 895 chips. Not much more room for anything other than all-in to win. GG, IGHN it feels like.

Mid 76s- fold with a call in front of me

UTG+2 AJs
UTG makes a min raise
I reraise 2.5x
He calls
Flop is 7T8
He checks
I check
Turn is a 9
He bets half the pot
I go all in with my straight
He folds

UTG+1 A5off- fold

UTG AK off
3x
SB calls
Flop is 9QJ
He checks
I check
Turn is a 9
He checks
I check
River is a T
He checks
I bet the pot
He calls
I take the pot- he had Q7off… why did he call? Why didn’t he bet?

BB 62s- fold

SB T4s- fold

Button 68off- fold

Hijack Q8off- fold

First player goes out

Cutoff KQoff
3x
Button calls
Flop is 3Q9
I bet the pot
He reraises all in
I fold my top pair

Mid TT
3x
scoop

UTG+2 28off- fold

UTG+1 28s- fold

UTG 56s- fold

I should have called that all in. I am sure I had the odds for it.

BB 4koff- fold

40/80 blinds, 1627 chips, one person out 1687 average chips

SB AKoff
Button limps
4x
BB folds
Button folds

Button K2off- fold

It would have been 650 more into a 1550 pot when I had top pair and second kicker. Hhhmmm… Yeah, should have called.

Hijack A4off- folded with no action in front of me

Cutoff 24off- fold

Mid 37off- fold

UTG+2 QJoff- fold… wanted to play it but too weak too early

I missed a hand somewhere.

UTG 67off- fold

BB T4off- fold

SB 53s- fold with raises

Button J7off- fold with a raise in front

Hijack 79off- fold

My two reraisers go all in preflop AK vs QQ. QQ holds up.

Cutoff 8Toff- fold

Mid 65off- fold

UTG+2 K2s- fold

I did not miss a hand- we lost a person!

UTG 84off- fold

Blinds are 50/100, still averagish in chips

BB A2off- fold to a 3x from UTG

SB J7off- fold

Button 84off- fold

Blinds go to 60/120

We get an all in and a call with AQ and AK

Hijack 9Toff- fold to an all in

Cutoff 56off- fold

2 short stacks now

Mid Q2off- fold

We lose another player when AK takes out smallstack QQ

UTG T7off- fold

BB T6off- fold

SB 86s- fold to a raise

Button KT
3x
BB calls
Flop is QT8
He checks
I bet half pot
He folds

Hijack 84s- fold

Cutoff 58off- fold

A 300 less than average chips now.

UTG+1 4Toff- fold

80/160 now

UTG 49off- fold

BB 56off- fold

SB Q9off- fold with action in front

Button QJoff
No action
Slightly less than a 3x
SB goes all in.
Of course I let it go.

Not putting my tourney on the line with QJ but this short stacks me.

Hijack A2off- fold

Cutoff J7off- fold

Yeah, that fold put my M at 4. Should I have been in all in mode instead of raise mode?

UTG+1 AQs
All in
Called by KK
I hit a Q
The KK holds up.

5+5 SNG 9

Truth is trying to convince me that if I played more aggressively I would stay above the curve and not be having this problem.

Talking with Truth- I went out to KK vs. AQ but don’t remember how I got there.

5+5 SNG 9

Ran second nut flush into nut flush- we both played suited hole cards.

Servers down for maintenance. Fuck I feel unsatisfied.