fuck poker tracker part 2

Chapter 2

Lets start with a recap.

I played 7 games earlier.

4 were horrific suckouts. Money in with a set, underpair calls- hits a full house. Money in with the nut flush, top pair calls- hits a full house. Money in with top pair, under pocket calls- hits a set. Pocket aces, hit a set on the flop but there are two flush cards, guy pushes all in, I put him on the nut draw and call- he hits the draw. The last one I might not categorize as a full suckout- he knew he was playing the draw and had decided to take his chances- I knew hew was playing the draw and had the math on my side… Meh.

1 was a third place cash. We went into the money with the guy to my right a massive chip leader. We quickly fell into the following pattern: he would raise every hand, if I pushed back all-in he would fold. The other guy was smart enough to stay out of it. What this meant was I either needed to push back with some shitty hands and hope he didn’t have a hand (not a great plan since he could pay me off three times before breaking a sweat) or I would need to “play with him” to get a full payoff. I hit a QT and decided to call rather than shove. Missed the flop and we both checked. Turn paired the board and we both checked- there are 3 diamonds now though. River gives me top pair and I instashove- then notice it made 4 diamonds. He called, of course, with the flush. He had played 25off.

1 was a loss with a decent lesson to learn, but it still grates since the guy was a fucking donkey. He raised from mid, I reraised from the blinds with AQoff. He called. Flop comes KQT. Gut shot, overcard, second pair. I don’t think he has AJ, but for not much more reason than hope I guess. Same with AA, QQ, KK, JJ… With my reraise though, he should probably be scared I might. Anyway, I decide to continue my show of massive strength with a check raise. I should have plenty of table image to work with here. I check, he bets, I raise almost all in. He calls. Turn is a 9. Now any jack has a straight. I am confident I am fucked- but also pot committed. He puts me all in, I call. The lesson was in making my check raise semi-bluff in a way that pot committed me. Anyway, he turns over KING FUCKING FOUR. To win with top pair shitty kicker. How does this guy make those two calls? How do I lose four whole sit-n-gos with top pair top kicker, set, top set, and two pair and this guy is going around making these fucking calls?

1 was a late stage loss where I just picked the wrong time to push. Blinds were getting high as people had been hunkered down. I shoved with AQ and ran into KK. Oops.

So, 2/3 horrific suckouts. One limp cash. One “that’s poker”. One tactical error.

How am I supposed to navigate around this shit? I would bet my DICK that Truth has less than 5 runs like this in his CAREER let alone roughly 30% or so of his play.

Oh yeah, 5+5 SNG 9

Down a third of my stack because a guy with a flush draw stayed in despite raises and reraises to hit his fourth spade on the river. Fuck my two pair.

MORE DEAD HORSE BEATING

How can Drunk Blond Poker win 75% of her SNGs? Is she lying? Is she pulling from a one day sample? I would say over time I am busting out to some flavor of “money in good suckout” 50% of the time. Of those I would say that 50% are fully tragic- the others I am short stacked and just unlucky. So, if I played PERFECT EVERY TIME, which I don’t- quite, I would still lose at least 25%.

What am I missing?

I watched a couple of videos of a guy the other day who is supposed to be really good at the SNGs. His strategy pretty much boiled down to “wait for top ten hands- win those… If you get down to an M of 10 just shove on any playable hand until you have chips again” What the fuck man?

I flopped an open ended straight draw with two overs just now. I love that. 14 outs, two streets to go. What do I get on those two streets? Two of the flop cards paired.

And now I am down to 1/3 of my chips.

QQ gets me the blinds and a limper.

My question about what I am missing is not rhetorical. People act like being positive over time is easy. Sheriff casually talks about how every evening he grinds out 20 or 40 bucks and is buying a laptop. AllenAlda alledged to pay his rent through SNGs for a while (Although I know he had some savings so its hard to say how firm his numbers are). Hell, my fucking brother-in-law talks about how fun it is to pop into Garden City and buy-in for 40 bucks and leave with 80 an hour or two later. Truth simply cashes all-the-fucking-time.

The only one of those players that I believe for even a second has anything on me is Truth and he is so ambiguous in his poker discussion that sometimes I doubt even that. I would say 15% of my loses can be chalked up to implosion- although 99% of those can be chalked up to all the fucking suckout bullshit. But, even if you nix those completely- pretend I just never played those 15%... I’d still be running TERRIBLE over time. Terrible in a way that I see no parallel with the other players I know.

So what am I missing?

I don’t play shitty starting hands. I push with position if there is no action with a slightly broader set of cards than I would just play. I occasionally, seldom though, chase drawing hands- example- I’ve played 8 SNGs today and I’ve done this with an open ended straight draw twice… In both cases I had the math to do it. I seldom bluff and when I do it’s the continuation of an action that didn’t work out. Like, I played two high cards and the flop hit all around me- so my continued play makes perfect sense since I would have treated the cards that did hit the exact same way. Other than position moves without action in front of me I NEVER just full-on bluff. I am not involved in too many pots. An argument could be made to say that I am too tight and should open my game, but I have a lot of trouble with that given that massive rate of suckouts and bullshit loses. If my premium hands that fucking HIT lose this often, how will playing shittier hands more often help?

This game sucks so far. Everyone playing like a turtle. Blinds are 100/200 with 6 players left. I am stealing as often as I think I can get away with it but I’ve been short stacked thanks to my two pair not holding up and my open ender not completing.

I doubled up through the other small stack when I called his all in with a slightly better ace. With less than M of 1 he pushes all in and I’ve got KQsuited. I reraise for protection. He turns over A2off. I flop 4 to the flush. I turn an open ender. He wins with ace high.

I make a steal with some limpers and another steal and suddenly am in second chip position. With an M of only 10 though it tells you how fucked the situation is.

I’ve stolen my way into chip lead.

I lose the chip lead when I double up that same guy again- this time A5suited to his 66.

Blinds are 120/240 now and we are on the bubble.

I am out on the bubble when I raise with top pair, get called, turn two pair, and push all-in, the two pair also gave me an open ended straight. A straight that ended in his overpair.

5+5 SNG 9

I counseled Joe, and this is not original material by any stretch, that he got sucked out on more than he sucked out because he was playing tight. This was within the first couple months of my play. Truth tried to make the point to me recently that my 17/20 day was really a good thing because it meant I was playing a solid game. What I can’t reconcile though is that I am not just “being saved at the last minute” or “winning the tournament” with a suckout. It just almost never happens. I make a big deal and write the shit down when it does. Tonight I haven’t sucked out once. I’ve lost many hands and FIVE FUCKING SNGs to it. I would think that statistically, for every tournament ending suckout… you would see a suckout somewhere else. Right? Some sort of balance?

When it gets like this I feel like a giant lead blanket is just pressing down on me. I can barely lift my head. I feel sluggish and inertia’d.

Note: I am again down 1/3 of my chips- how? Folding. Stole a couple of blinds, called two min bets when I saw a free flop from the BB and hit a shitty pair and a straight draw. But, we are talking less than 2 blinds of calling.

Twice this asshole has limped into my BB (when I’ve had cards I’d just as soon fold). Both times I hit bottom or second pair. Both times I bet, both times he called, and both times the rest of the board were nice big “anybody who WANTED in on this fucking hand must have one of those” cards that made me fold to subsequent betting. Blinds are up to 40/80 and my two best hands are A9 OFF and 44. I stole the blinds with both.

FUUUUUCCCCKKK YYYOOOUUU

Oh, 72off. Thanks for that.

I finally see a hand- down to almost half the starting chips at level 5 or so. KQoff in the SB. Button makes a steal move and I reraise all-in. Dumbass calls with fucking K9. And the board plays out so we chop. Thanks for that too.

Man I am tired of writing about bad beats and shitty cards. I feel like a Rodney Dangerfield skit though, “if it wasn’t for bad luck I’d have no luck at all”

I just folded my third, fourth, and fifth ace of the tourney- all three were A2 and all three had an all-in in front of me.

I shove with 88- again no action.

Blinds go up and I get 82off. Thanks for that.

Fuck this is insane. Scraping along on the bubble bubble- the blinds are one level from the highest I’ve EVER seen them. And no two cards to rub together. What am I supposed to do? Shove with K4off? Q2suited? These are BY FAR the best hands I’ve seen in multiple rounds.

After a fucking RETARDED length of time playing the fold, fold, fold, fold, shove game I went all-in against a guy who had me stacked. I turn over my 66 and he turns over AKoff with the ace of diamonds (one of my sixes is a diamond). Flop is all diamonds. Turn is a blank. River is his king. We all knew I was lost when he flipped over for the race.